Soybeans 14 to 20 Cents Lower As China Values Decline

Soy futures start the midweek session 14 to 20 cents lower after overnight trades. Chinese soybean futures dropped sharply on Wednesday, as did their Shanghai stock market. Preliminary OI data shows rolling of positions from May to July, but only minor short covering across the soy board. Recall that beans initially reacted to the lack of USDA revisions with losses, but were ultimately 3 1/2 to 7 3/4 cents in the black at the close. Soymeal closed 30 cents higher with May at $416.60/ton. Front month BO futures ended the day with triple digit gains.

USDA made no changes from Feb for beans nor meal. The only domestic soy S&D changes yesterday were in soybean oil. USDA raised the BO yield to 11.65. The higher production and an export cut for soy oil raised BO stocks to 1.733b lbs. The new projected cash price was a penny higher to 41 cents/lb. Soy oil futures are making a serious attempt to make themselves uneconomical for biodiesel use (or trying to attract a bigger government subsidy to make it work).

For South America, USDA trimmed Argentina’s production by 500k MT to 47 MMT. Brazilian production was upped 1 MMT to 134 MMT. The global trade was tweaked 30k MT, to 169.72 MMT. Projected August 31 world stocks were also slightly higher to 83.74 MMT.

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