AgriCharts Market Commentary


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Corn 1 to 2 Cents Higher on Pre-Weekend Profit Taking

Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher this morning after dropping 10 to 11 1/2 cents on Thursday. The weekly Export Sales report showed just 200,009 MT of old crop corn bookings. That was down 68.8% from the same week in 2018 and below trade expectations. Japan was the main buyer of 144,300 MT. New crop sales were tallied at 132,997 MT, within the range of estimates but still 82.83% smaller than this week last year. Total corn export commitments are 15.5% below the same week last year. Compared to the USDA projection, they are 93% complete, vs. the 102% average. Most of that lag is from unshipped sales, as accumulated exports are 84% of that projection and even with the average pace. A Chinese auction of state reserves saw 522,921 MT of corn sold on Thursday, which was 13.47% of the amount offered.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market Boosted by Rate Cut Talk

Soybean futures are trading 7 to 8 cents higher this morning. Fed officials continued to make dovish hints of an interest rate cut at the end of the month. They ended the Thursday session with the nearby contracts 1 to 2 cents lower. August soybean meal was down 50 cents/ton, with soy oil 4 points lower. Old crop soybean sales totaled 127,890 MT during the week of July 11. That was a 10-week low and 34.1% below last year. New crop bookings were 198,367 MT, up 53.2% wk/wk but down 67.7% yr/yr. Old crop export commitments are now 105% of USDA’s projected total vs. the 103% average. Exports are 85% of that number, with the normal pace at 83%.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Markets 1 to 3 Cents Higher This Morning

Wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents higher this morning, with Chicago and KC futures a little firmer than the MPLS spring wheat. Shorts are taking some of their winnings off the table ahead of the weekend. Wheat futures settled with 2 to 12 cent losses in most contracts on Thursday, as CBT was the weakest and MPLS the stoutest. Weakness in corn pressured the market, with the nearby KC wheat-corn spread at 8 1/4 cents. The weekly Export Sales report from FAS indicated export bookings were 347,290 MT. That was on the higher end of estimates and 15.75% larger than the same week last year. Mexico was the top buyer of 166,500 MT, with South Korea at 80,000 MT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Settles In For USDA Reports

Live cattle futures were down 50 to 75 cents in most nearby contracts on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures were down $1.15 to $1.35, ignoring losses in corn. The biannual Cattle Inventory will be released this afternoon, along with the monthly COF report. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.01 @ $140.00 on July 17. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Thursday with Choice boxes up 77 cents per cwt and Select boxes 27 cents higher. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 481,000 head through Thursday. That was up 3,000 head from the previous week and 7,000 larger than the same week last year. A few cattle exchanged hands at $111 in the South on Wednesday, with $113-113.50 live and $182-185 dressed in the North as reported by USDA. Beef export sales in the week of July 11 totaled 19,792 MT for 2019, with weekly shipments at 17,959 MT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Back and Fill

Lean Hog futures were lower in most contracts on Thursday, with August up 15 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 17 cents from the previous day on July 16 @ $70.79. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up another 12 cents at $76.60. The belly primal was up $3.68. The national average base hog value was up 71 cents on Thursday at $72.24. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter is 1.820 million head. That was down 94,000 head from last week due to plant down time but 24,000 head larger than the same week last year. The weekly Export Sales report showed 30,107 MT of pork sold in the week of 7/11, with Mexico at 8,800 MT and Taiwan buying 8,200 MT. Shipments were 36,761 MT, including 9,910 MT was headed to China.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Up 48 to 81 Points

Cotton futures are currently 48 to 81 points higher. They were down 65 to 101 points in the front months on Thursday. The Export Sales report indicated that 54,034 RB of 18/19 upland cotton was sold in the week that ended on July 11. That was more than 4 times the same week last year. New crop bookings were the third largest this MY @ 218,900 RB. That was still down 11.63% from the same week last year, with Vietnam buying 100,900 RB. Weekly shipments were shown at 310,285 RB, but only 7,641 RB went to China. The total was down 6.88% from last week and 36.5% larger than the same week last year. The Cotlook A index for July 17 was down 75 points from the previous day at 74.20 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through next Thursday. This is still above the 52 cent loan rate, i.e. there is no LDP or MLG. USDA also noted that the “costs to market” adjustment for the 2019/20 crop year will be 15.20 cents/lb and will become effective for the week beginning 12:01 a.m. August 9, 2019.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.
Omaha, NE 68022
P: 402-697-3623
F: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com