Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC -

Ag Market Commentary

Alan Brugler - Barchart - Thu Oct 22, 12:27PM UTC

Corn futures are fractionally mixed this morning. That follows 2 1/2 to 5 cent gains from the Wednesday session. National average basis is the strongest in three months, and spreads have narrowed. Preliminary open interest shows net new futures and options buying to the tune of 29,982 contracts. Analysts are expecting the Export Sales report to show between 0.8-1.4 MMT of corn bookings for the week ending October 15. Yesterday, EIA’s weekly report confirmed ethanol production for the week ending 10/16 averaged 913,000 barrels per day. That was down 24k bpd wk/wk and 83k bpd below the same week last year. The ethanol stocks dropped 19.721 million barrels. U.S. Grains Council reported the FOB gulf price for ethanol was 2.7% higher on the week at $1.594/gal. Port Santos FOB price was $1.746/gal from Brazil.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report, soybeans are trading 1 to 3 cents per bushel higher. Yesterday beans gained 5 1/2 to 8 cents. Preliminary open interest rose 13,827 contracts. Midweek meal prices closed at $378.8/ton for Dec, $373 for Jan and $364 for March. Bean oil was marked at 33.20 cents/lb at the close. Traders expect between 1.5 and 2.5 MMT of soybeans were sold in the week ending 10/15. For soymeal, traders anticipate between 100k and 350k MT sold. BO export sales are estimated to be less than 30,000 MT. CONAB has maintained their record large 2020/21 bean production estimates for Brazil, citing minimal to negligible effects of late planting.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are 2 to 5 cents lower in the winter wheat contracts this morning, while MPLS spring wheat is 1 to 2 cents higher. Wheat futures gave back some gains yesterday, as the complex closed on both sides of UNCH. SRW futures were in the red for Dec and March, but higher in July and Sept. HRW wheat ended the session fractionally to 1 1/4 cents lower. Spring wheat futures held onto gains of up to 4 ¾ cents. US wheat export bookings are estimated between 200,000 and 800,000 MT for the week ending 10/15.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Fat cattle futures ended 22 to 87 cents lower on Wednesday. Feeders gave back some of the earlier gains, but still closed 25 to 37 cents higher. October feeders were the exception with a dime loss and 1,463 contracts open. They are still anticipating a big drop in the CME Index over the next week. The 10/20 Feeder Cattle Index dropped 30 cents to $138.36. Cash sales in NE on Wednesday were $104-$105 live and $162-$165 dressed. The range for the week has been $102 to $106.50. Trader estimates ahead of the monthly USDA CoF report (Friday) have a 3.2% increase to Oct 1 on feed. Placements are estimated to increase 2.4% from September 19. September marketings are estimated at 5.8% above ’19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker in the PM report. Choice boxes were quoted at $208.47, down by $2.13 cent. Select boxes were 76 cents weaker to $190.91. USDA estimates 360,000 cattle were slaughtered for the week through Wednesday. That compares to 356k LW and 355,000 head LY.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures were a nickel to 82 cents weaker at the close. Dec is once again premium to Feb. The October 19 CME Lean Hog Index was $78.62, up by 35 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was back up by $1.38 in the afternoon update at $63.22. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $1.25 higher on 10/21 to $98.16 cwt. Hams were up $16.63, but the other primal cuts were mostly lower. Federally inspected hog slaughter for the week through Wednesday is 1.457 million head. That is 2k head higher wk/wk, but 13,000 below the same week last year.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton trading ahead of the week’s export sales report has prices 41 to 62 points higher. Cotton ended the Wednesday session with gains limited to 5 points. Futures did post new highs, which for Dec was just a point off the Jan 22 high. USDA’s Daily Spot Quotations report said 3,823 bales were sold at spot on Wednesday at 9 points better 65.79 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was up another 140 points to 76.80 cents/lb on 10/20. The AWP for cotton is 53.43 cents/lb, through tomorrow.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by: <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /> Brugler Marketing & Management LLC 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022 Phone: 402-697-3623 Fax: 402-289-2353 E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a>   <div class="MsoNormal" align="center"> Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com/BruglerSampler">here</a> to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today! <hr /> Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com">Start here</a> </div> Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? <a href="http://www.agricharts.com/forms/ac_ag.php">Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.</a>