Ag Market Commentary

Corn is trading with fractional to 2 3/4 cent midday gains nearby and 2 cent midday losses for next MY contracts. National average basis is the strongest in three months, and spreads have narrowed. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed that 1,831,566 MT (72 mbu) were sold on the week ending 10/15. That was above the range of pre-report estimates, up 180% on the week and 273% above the same week last year. Japan and China were the top buyers on the week with 490,100 and 433,500 MT respectively. Total export commitments are 1.116 bbu through the first 7 weeks of the MY. That is 48% of USDA’s forecast for the full year, compared to the same week last year when accumulated commits were 23% of the Oct forecast. Milo sales set a MY high of 280,804 MT. China and unknown were the exclusive sorghum buyers on the week, and China was the only destination for the 70,100 MT shipped.

Dec 20 Corn is at $4.16 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $4.18 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

May 21 Corn is at $4.19 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 21 Corn is at $4.18 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are trading up 2 1/4 to 5 1/4 cents, but moving around. Yesterday’s open interest rose 13,827 contracts, net new buying interest. Soymeal futures are $3.60 to $7.10/ton higher. Soybean oil futures are gaining 34 to 46 points at midday. USDA announced a large export sale for 152,404 MT of soybeans to Mexico in a mandatory announcement. Private exporters also sold 132,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations. From the weekly export sales update, 2.226 MMT of soybeans were booked on the week ending 10/15. About 41% of the week’s sales were previously announced via mandatory daily announcements. China purchased 55% of the total sales. Accumulated soybean commitments are 76% of USDA’s MY projected exports, which compares to 38% at eth same time last year. For soymeal, 322k MT were booked on the week ending 10/15. That was on the high end of estimates, and 191% above the same week last year. Soy oil sales were above expectations with 37,017 MT booked. China was the top purchaser of soybean oil on the week with 30% of the total.

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $10.77 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $10.76, up 4 1/2 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans are at $10.62 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,

May 21 Soybeans are at $10.58 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Dec 20 Soybean Meal is at $385.90, up $7.10

Dec 20 Soybean Oil is at $33.66, up $0.46

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month wheat futures are trading lower so far for the Thursday session. SRW futures are down 4 1/4 to 6 cents. KC wheat futures are trading with midday losses of 4 3/4 to 5 1/2 cents. MGE HRS is down 4 to 5 cents at midday. USDA announced a private export sale for 130,000 MT of soft white wheat to South Korea with 2020/21 delivery. From the weekly Export Sales report, USDA data had 367,455 MT of wheat sold on the week ending 10/15. That was down 30% wk/wk but still up 40% from the same week last year. Shipments on the week were 192,145 MT, bringing MYTD exports to 10.19 MMT (374.4 mbu). Algeria purchased 720,000 MT of wheat in the international tender. Japan purchased 80,526 MT – with 29,217 U.S. origin.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat is at $6.24 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat is at $5.64 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.78 1/2, down 4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month cattle futures are trading with midday losses of 25 cents to $1.17. Feeder cattle futures are also in the red with 10 to 90 cent losses so far. The 10/20 Feeder Cattle Index dropped 30 cents to $138.36. The range for cash sales this week has been $102 to $106.50 – mostly $104 to $106. Trader estimates ahead of the monthly USDA CoF report (Friday) have 11.65 million head (+3.2%) on feed on Oct 1. Export Sales data showed 21,717 MT of beef sold on the week ending 10/15. That was a 13 week high, and 57% above the same week last year. Accumulated beef exports now outpace 2019 by 1.17% with 649,622 MT shipped through 10/15. Wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger this morning. Choice boxes were up $1.05 and Select was $1.03 higher. USDA estimates 360,000 cattle were slaughtered for the week through Wednesday. That compares to 356k LW and 355,000 head LY.

Oct 20 Cattle are at $103.400, down $0.250,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $103.675, down $0.900,

Feb 21 Cattle are at $106.950, down $1.125,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $134.300, down $0.100

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle are at $130.625, down $0.525

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle are at $126.250, down $0.825

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures are adding more to the downside through midday on Thursday. The front months are $0.97 to $2.17 in the red so far. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/20 was $78.69, up by 7 cents. USDA’s National Average Morning Base Hog price dropped $3.53 to $59.80. The weekly Export Sales report had pork bookings at 26,800 MT for the week ending 10/15. That was even with last week’s sales but 40% above the same week last year. Shipments of 36,604 MT brought the 2020 total to 1.521 MMT. That is 25% above 2019’s pace. Pork shipments to China account for 38% of the total. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value shot $3.99 higher to $102.15. The primals were mixed but Bellies surged $25.33 higher to $195.56 cwt. Federally inspected hog slaughter for the week through Wednesday is 1.457 million head. That is 2k head higher wk/wk, but 13,000 below the same week last year.

Dec 20 Hogs are at $67.025, down $2.175,

Feb 21 Hogs are at $67.450, down $1.000

Apr 21 Hogs are at $69.775, down $1.025

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management




Front month cotton futures are up 50 to 75 points at midday. The dollar is also higher thus far on Thursday. USDA’s Daily Spot Quotations report said 3,823 bales were sold at spot on Wednesday at 9 points better 65.79 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was up another 5 points to 76.85 cents/lb on 10/21. Cotton bookings on the week ending 10/15 were reported at 227,760 RBs. That was 130% higher than last week’s low sales, and 10% above the same week last year. Pakistan and China were the top purchasers on the week, with 41% and 21% of the total respectively. The AWP for cotton is 53.43 cents/lb, and will be updated after the close.

Dec 20 Cotton is at 71.79, up 75 points,

Mar 21 Cotton is at 72.32, up 59 points

May 21 Cotton is at 72.86, up 52 points

Jul 21 Cotton is at 73.33, up 52 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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