Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC -

Ag Market Commentary

Alan Brugler - Barchart - Thu Oct 22, 9:28PM UTC

Thursday corn trading left futures 1 1/4 to 2 1/2 cents higher in the front months. The 2021/22 crop contracts closed 1 1/4 to 3 cents in the red. Barchart’s cmdtyView corn yield and production forecasts were updated. Estimated yield is now at 179.77, up 1.54 bpa, and production is 15.275, up 156 mbu. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed that 1,831,566 MT (72 mbu) were sold on the week ending 10/15. That was above the range of pre-report estimates, up 180% on the week and 273% above the same week last year. Japan and China were the top buyers on the week with 490,100 and 433,500 MT respectively. Total export commitments are 1.116 bbu through the first 7 weeks of the MY. That is 48% of USDA’s forecast for the full year, compared to the same week last year when accumulated commits were 23% of the Oct forecast. Milo sales set a MY high of 280,804 MT. China and unknown were the exclusive sorghum buyers on the week, and China was the only destination for the 70,100 MT shipped. USDA’s Ag Attache sees lower yield in Ukraine, reducing production by 17% compared with USDA’s official estimate. The Ag Attaché sees Ukraine’s beginning supply at 33.167 MMT, compared to 39.563 MMT from the October WASDE. FAS Kyviv sees Ukraine 2020/21 ending stocks 696k lighter than USDA’s official, at 867,000 MT.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.16 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.18 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $4.19 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $4.19 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Afternoon soybean trading led to some late session givebacks. Beans were firm to higher at the close, but were briefly in the red during the afternoon fade. Soymeal futures also pulled back from midday gains, but held on to $0.90 to $3.60 gains by the close. Bean oil ended the Thursday session 35 to 49 points higher. Barchart’s cmdtyView bean yield and production forecasts were updated. Yield is at 50.45, down 0.05 bpa, and production is 4.182 billion, down 8 mbu. From the weekly export sales update, 2.226 MMT of soybeans were booked on the week ending 10/15. About 41% of the week’s sales were previously announced via mandatory daily announcements. China purchased 55% of the total sales. Accumulated soybean commitments are 76% of USDA’s MY projected exports, which compares to 38% at the same time last year. For soymeal, 322k MT were booked on the week ending 10/15. That was on the high end of estimates, and 191% above the same week last year. Soy oil sales were above expectations with 37,017 MT booked. China was the top purchaser of soybean oil on the week with 30% of the total.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.73 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.72 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.58 3/4, unch,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.55, unch,

Dec 20 Soybean Meal closed at $382.40, up $3.60

Dec 20 Soybean Oil closed at $33.69, up $0.49

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month wheat futures gave some more back. At the closing bell, CBT wheat futures were down 7 to 8 cents. KC wheat closed the Thursday session 8 3/4 to 9 1/2 cents lower. HRS futures were down 5 1/2 to 8 cents on the day. USDA announced a private export sale for 130,000 MT of soft white wheat to South Korea with 2020/21 delivery. From the weekly Export Sales report, USDA data had 367,455 MT of wheat sold in the week ending 10/15. That was down 30% wk/wk but still up 40% from the same week last year. Shipments on the week were 192,145 MT, bringing MYTD exports to 10.19 MMT (374.4 mbu). USDA’s Ag Attaché has Ukrainian wheat production 8% below USDA’s official estimate at 24.972 MMT respectively. The Ag Attaché also sees tighter carryin stocks, reducing Ukraine’s 2020/21 ending stocks to 905,000 MT. Algeria purchased 720,000 MT of wheat in the international tender. Japan purchased 80,526 MT – with 29,217 U.S. origin. Egypt is tendering for wheat, with results expected tomorrow.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.22 3/4, down 7 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.60 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.74 1/2, down 8 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle fell back triple digits on Thursday, which for Dec contracts was the 9th red candle from the last 11 sessions. Feeders were down 57 to 90 cents on the day, which tightened the feeder to fat spreads. The 10/21 Feeder Cattle Index dropped another $2.83 to $135.53. Thursday cash business was light; USDA reported a few sales from $103 to $105. Trader estimates ahead of the monthly USDA CoF report (Friday) have 11.65 million head (+3.2%) on feed on Oct 1. USDA’s Monthly Cold Storage report had 461,987 million lbs of beef stocks at Sept 30. That was up 2.81% from August but still the lowest Sept stocks since 2014. FAS Export Sales data showed 21,717 MT of beef sold on the week ending 10/15. That was a 13 week high, and 57% above the same week last year. Accumulated beef exports now outpace 2019 by 1.17% with 649,622 MT shipped through 10/15. Wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger in the PM quote. Choice boxes were up $0.39 and Select was $0.17 higher. USDA estimates FI cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday at 480,000 head. That is 4k above last week’s pace, and up 8k head from the same week last year.

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $103.325, down $0.325,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $103.475, down $1.100,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $106.775, down $1.300,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $133.825, down $0.575

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $130.425, down $0.725

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $126.200, down $0.875

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Dec hog futures closed limit down at the end of the session. The other front months were down $0.57 to $1.60 on the day. The expanded limit for tomorrow’s round is $4.50. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/20 was $78.69, up by 7 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price dropped $2.76 to $60.57. The weekly Export Sales report had pork bookings at 26,800 MT for the week ending 10/15. That was even with last week’s sales but 40% above the same week last year. Shipments of 36,604 MT brought the 2020 total to 1.521 MMT. That is 25% above 2019’s pace. Pork shipments to China account for 38% of the total. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was 68 cents stronger in the PM report at $98.84. Pork stocks in September were 466.474 million lbs from the Cold Storage report. That was just 0.22% above August and the lowest Sept since 2010. Belly stocks were a 2020 low 24.876 million lbs, and down 39% yr/yr. Hog slaughter through Thursday was estimated at 1.949m head. That is down from 1.958 LY.

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $66.200, down $3.000,

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $66.850, down $1.600

Apr 21 Hogs closed at $69.700, down $1.100

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month cotton futures gained 58 to 90 points on the day. Despite Dec being up the most, it did not take out the 9 month high from yesterday. Dec futures have green candles for 12 of the last 15 sessions. USDA’s Daily Spot Quotations report said 7,139 bales were sold at spot on Thursday at 66.76 cents per pound. The Cotlook A index was up another 5 points to 76.85 cents/lb on 10/21. About 742,750 RBs were ginned during the first half of October, as USDA’s cotton ginnings report showed 1.658m RBs were ginned MYTD. Accumulated ginnings are running 42% behind 19/20’s pace, still the slowest since 15/16. Upland cotton bookings from the Export Sales report were 227,760 RBs for the week ending 10/15. That was 130% higher than last week’s low sales, and 10% above the same week last year. Pakistan and China were the top purchasers on the week, with 41% and 21% of the total respectively. The FSA adjusted the AWP for cotton 2.28 cents higher to 55.71 cents/lb.

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 71.94, up 90 points,

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 72.51, up 78 points1

May 21 Cotton closed at 73.09, up 75 points

Jul 21 Cotton closed at 73.54, up 73 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by: <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /> Brugler Marketing & Management LLC 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022 Phone: 402-697-3623 Fax: 402-289-2353 E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a>   <div class="MsoNormal" align="center"> Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com/BruglerSampler">here</a> to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today! <hr /> Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com">Start here</a> </div> Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? <a href="http://www.agricharts.com/forms/ac_ag.php">Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.</a>