Cattle Futures Weak Going Into COF Report

Cattle were down triple digits on Thursday, excluding nearby October. Feeders were down 57 to 90 cents on the day. The 10/21 Feeder Cattle Index dropped another $2.83 to $135.53. Thursday cash business was light; USDA reported a few sales from $103 to $105. The average of pre report estimates expects USDA to show 11.65m (+3.2%) head on feed on Oct 1. September placements in the COF report are estimated at 2.154m head (+2.4%). And the average estimate for Sept marketings is 1.839m head (+5.8%). USDA’s Monthly Cold Storage report on Thursday had 461,987 million lbs of beef in the cooler as of Sept 30. That was up 2.81% from August but still the lowest Sept stocks since 2014. Accumulated beef exports, from weekly data, now outpace 2019 by 1.17% with 649,622 MT shipped through 10/15. Wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger in the PM quote. Choice boxes were up $0.39 and Select was $0.17 higher. USDA estimates FI cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday at 480,000 head. That is 4k above last week’s pace, and up 8k head from the same week last year.

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