Ag Market Commentary

Overnight, corn prices moved 1 to 2 cents higher. On Thursday, corn closed with 1 1/4 to 2 1/2 cents gains. Barchart’s cmdtyView corn yield and production forecasts were updated. Estimated yield is now at 179.77, up 1.54 bpa, and production is 15.275, up 156 mbu. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed that 1,831,566 MT (72 mbu) were sold on the week ending 10/15. Total export commitments are 1.116 bbu through the first 7 weeks of the MY. That is 48% of USDA’s forecast for the full year, compared to the same week last year when accumulated commits were 23% of the Oct forecast. USDA’s Ag Attaché sees lower yield in Ukraine, reducing production by 17% compared with USDA’s official estimate. FAS Kyviv sees Ukraine 2020/21 ending stocks 696k lighter than USDA’s official, at 867,000 MT.

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Soybean futures are fractionally mixed this morning. Barchart’s cmdtyView bean yield estimate was trimmed 0.05 bpa to 50.45 bpa, and production is seen at 4.182 billion, down 8 mbu. From the weekly export sales update, 2.226 MMT of soybeans were booked on the week ending 10/15. Accumulated soybean commitments are 76% of USDA’s MY projected exports, which compares to 38% at the same time last year. For soymeal, 322k MT were booked on the week ending 10/15. That was on the high end of estimates, and 191% above the same week last year. Soy oil sales were above expectations with 37,017 MT booked.

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Wheat is 4 to 6 cents higher to start the last trading day of the week. At the close on Thursday, CBT wheat futures were down 7 to 8 cents. KC wheat closed the Thursday session 8 3/4 to 9 1/2 cents lower. HRS futures were down 5 1/2 to 8 cents on the day. From the weekly Export Sales report, USDA data had 367,455 MT of wheat sold in the week ending 10/15. Shipments on the week were 192,145 MT, bringing MYTD exports to 10.19 MMT (374.4 mbu). USDA’s Ag Attaché has Ukrainian wheat production 8% below USDA’s official estimate at 24.972 MMT respectively. The Ag Attaché also sees tighter carryin stocks, reducing Ukraine’s 2020/21 ending stocks to 905,000 MT. Egypt is tendering for wheat, with results expected later today. The Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its estimate of the Argentine wheat crop to 16.8 MMT vs. USDA at 19 MMT.

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Cattle were down triple digits on Thursday, excluding nearby October. Feeders were down 57 to 90 cents on the day. The 10/21 Feeder Cattle Index dropped another $2.83 to $135.53. Thursday cash business was light; USDA reported a few sales from $103 to $105. The average of pre report estimates expects USDA to show 11.65m (+3.2%) head on feed on Oct 1. September placements in the COF report are estimated at 2.154m head (+2.4%). And the average estimate for Sept marketings is 1.839m head (+5.8%). USDA’s Monthly Cold Storage report on Thursday had 461,987 million lbs of beef in the cooler as of Sept 30. That was up 2.81% from August but still the lowest Sept stocks since 2014. Accumulated beef exports, from weekly data, now outpace 2019 by 1.17% with 649,622 MT shipped through 10/15. Wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger in the PM quote. Choice boxes were up $0.39 and Select was $0.17 higher. USDA estimates FI cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday at 480,000 head. That is 4k above last week’s pace, and up 8k head from the same week last year.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Dec hog futures closed limit down on Thursday. The other front months were down $0.57 to $1.60. CME’s expanded limit is $4.50 for today. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/20 was $78.69, up by 7 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price dropped $2.76 to $60.57. The weekly Export Sales report had pork bookings at 26,800 MT for the week ending 10/15. Shipments in 2020 now total 1.521 MMT. That is 25% above 2019’s pace. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was 68 cents stronger in the PM report at $98.84. Pork stocks in September were 466.474 million lbs per the Cold Storage report. That was just 0.22% above August and the lowest end of September inventory since 2010. Hog slaughter through Thursday was estimated at 1.949m head. That is down from 1.958 LY.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are 42 to 52 points lower this morning on a little pre-weekend profit taking. December is up more than 600 points (6 cents per pound) for the month. Yesterday cotton futures were 58 to 90 points higher on the day. Dec futures have green candles for 12 of the last 15 sessions. About 742,750 RBs were ginned during the first half of October, as USDA’s cotton ginnings report showed 1.658m RBs were ginned for the YTD. Accumulated ginnings are running 42% behind 19/20’s pace, still the slowest since 15/16. Upland cotton bookings from the Export Sales report were 227,760 RBs for the week ending 10/15. That was 10% above the same week last year. USDA’s Daily Spot Quotations report said 7,139 bales were sold at spot on Thursday at 66.76 cents per pound. The Cotlook A index was up another 5 points to 76.85 cents/lb on 10/21. The FSA adjusted the AWP for cotton 2.28 cents higher to 55.71 cents/lb. That’s too high for an LDP.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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