Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC -

Ag Market Commentary

Alan Brugler - Barchart - Mon Aug 10, 4:41PM UTC

Through midday, corn is up 3/4 to 3 cents. New crop gains are limited to 2 cents. From the week ending August 6, USDA reported 1.151 MMT (45.3 mbu) of corn was exported. That was 16.5 mbu above the same week last year, and the largest weekly shipment since the week ending June 18. Of the week’s shipments, China was the top destination with 23% of the total, 21% was for Mexico, and 15% was destined for Japan. Accumulated corn exports were up to 1.54 bbu, which still trails last year’s pace by 14%. Also from the report, sorghum shipments were down significantly on the week (%) and below last year. In total, 38,959 MT of milo was shipped on the week, with 38,200 MT to Somalia. Traders are expecting USDA to show crop conditions UNCH to perhaps 1 point lower in the good/excellent categories tonight. Some analysts are also indicating that USDA’s August corn production estimate has been larger than the average trade guess in each of the past 5 years.

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.10 3/4, up 3 cents,

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.22 3/4, up 2 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.34 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

May 21 Corn is at $3.42 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans are trading with 4 1/4 to 6 1/4 cent gains at midday. Meal futures are $2.30 to $3.40 higher. Ahead of Friday’s expiration, there have been 1,122 contracts of August meal delivered against futures. MTD soybean oil deliveries sit at 764 contracts. Bean oil futures are steady to 12 points lower at midday. USDA announced three large new crop bean export sales this morning. Private exporters reported sales of 111,000 MT to unknown, 324,000 MT to China, and another 264,000 MT to China in delayed reporting. The weekly Export Inspections report from USDA showed that 23.4 mbu of soybeans were shipped on the week ending Aug 6. That was up 14% wk/wk but down by 11% from the same week of 19/20. Analysts surveyed ahead of USDA’s reports estimate bean yield will be 51.2 bpa. That would be up 1.4 bpa from the July estimate if realized. That higher yield estimate pushed the average production estimate to 4.26 bbu, which would be up 124.5 mbu. On average, analysts expect USDA to raise 2021 soybean carryout 101 mbu to 526. Carryin for 2020/21 is estimated to fall back 1.6 mbu to 618.4. Trade ideas for USDA crop condition ratings tonight are mostly UNCH to 1 percentage point poorer.

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $8.76 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans are at $8.71 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $8.74, up 6 1/2 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $8.79 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal is at $282.30, up $2.30

Aug 20 Soybean Oil is at $31.35, unch

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Coming out of the weekend, front month wheat futures look to add more to the downside. Chicago SRW wheat futures are trading 4 to 4 3/4 cents lower so far. HRW futures start the new week with midday losses of 3 1/4 to 3 1/2 cents. MGE wheat futures are down by as much as 3 1/2 cents. USDA’s weekly export data from the week ending August 6 showed that 379,949 MT of wheat was exported. That was down 32% wk/wk, and 47% below the same week last year. Of the week’s wheat shipments, 47% was HRW, and 23% was destined for Japan. Other significant destinations for the week were China with 17%, Philippines 15%, and Brazil with 11%. MYTD wheat exports via the weekly report were 2% ahead of 19/20’s pace with 5.067 MMT. Ukraine’s wheat harvest was 87% complete as of August 6. As French wheat harvest wraps up, estimates are for 29-30 MMT. Estimates ahead of the Crop Progress report are 91% of winter wheat harvest completed and 14% of national spring wheat cut. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows the average estimate for US wheat production is 1.832 bbu, with 1.218 bbu winter wheat. The average estimate for World wheat stocks is ~314.7 MMT. Pakistan is tendering for 1.5 MMT of optional origin wheat.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat is at $4.91 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.12, down 3 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat is at $4.91, down 3 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

It’s first notice day for August fats, and prices are 75 cents stronger to $103.55. The other front months are up by 27 to 72 cents so far. Feeder cattle futures are mixed at midday. August feeders are 20 cents stronger, while the other contracts are 7 to 47 cents in the red. The August 6 CME Feeder Cattle index was $141.92, which was another $1.13 higher. Cash sales have yet to develop this week. Last week’s bulk of activity was near $100 live basis, and $163 in the beef. Wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger this morning widening the Chc/Sel spread to $13.06. Choice boxes were $1.46 cwt. stronger to $206.93. Select boxes were up by $1.12 cwt. USDA estimates FI cattle slaughter last week at 633,000 head. That was 5k below the previous week and down 14k yr/yr.

Aug 20 Cattle are at $103.550, up $0.750,

Oct 20 Cattle are at $107.125, up $0.675,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $110.650, up $0.575,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle are at $142.925, up $0.200

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle are at $144.775, down $0.350

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $145.925, down $0.475

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Monday’s lean hog trading has futures up triple digits. October hogs are pushing for a limit gain, trading 3 cents off at midday. The week’s Fresh Bacon index from CME was $5.78 higher to $134.40 cwt. The CME Lean Hog index was $52.44 on Aug 6, after dropping 34 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Monday morning was up 54 cents to $38.73. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was up $3.52 on Monday morning to $75.45. Bellies were up by $13.95 in the AM report to $122.95 cwt. and Hams were up $7.70 cwt. to 466.15. USDA’s estimate for the week’s FI hog slaughter is 2.534 million head through Saturday. That is up 184,000 head yr/yr on another strong Saturday kill.

Aug 20 Hogs are at $52.975, up $1.975,

Oct 20 Hogs are at $53.950, up $2.975

Dec 20 Hogs are at $54.825, up $1.900

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures open the new week of trading with midday gains of 52 to 60 points in the front months. On Friday, the hard selling left Dec futures 30 points lower for the weekThe Commitment of Traders report with data from the week ending August 4, showed cotton spec fund traders were 31,335 contracts net long. That was an increase of 5,700 wk/wk from short covering. Sales reported on The Seam for last week were 55,775 bales at a wtd av price of 57.27 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was 71.25 cents/lb on Aug 7, a 40 point bump. The AWP for cotton is 49.44 cents/lb through Thursday. The week’s LDP is 2.56 cents/lb.

Oct 20 Cotton is at 62.4, up 52 points,

Dec 20 Cotton is at 62.91, up 55 points

Mar 21 Cotton is at 63.71, up 52 points

May 21 Cotton is at 64.41, up 54 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by: <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /> Brugler Marketing & Management LLC 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022 Phone: 402-697-3623 Fax: 402-289-2353 E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a>   <div class="MsoNormal" align="center"> Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com/BruglerSampler">here</a> to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today! <hr /> Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com">Start here</a> </div> Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? <a href="http://www.agricharts.com/forms/ac_ag.php">Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.</a>