Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC -

Ag Market Commentary

Alan Brugler - Barchart - Tue Aug 11, 12:28PM UTC

Corn futures trading starts the Tuesday session mostly 2 cents higher. On Monday, corn gained 1 1/2 to 2 3/4 cents. A derecho with 100+ mph winds also swept through part of IA, flattening crops. As of August 9, NASS says that 11% of new crop corn in the 18 major states was dented. The 5-yr average is 12%. Also from the Crop Progress report, 59% of corn was in the dough stage, and only 3% of the national crop had yet to reach silking stage. Corn conditions fell back a point on the Brugler500 index to 379. Colorado ratings fell the most, dropping back 20 points to 295. IA conditions also fell wk/wk, down 8 points to 372. This would be prior to any derecho damage. From the week ending August 6, USDA reported 1.151 MMT (45.3 mbu) of corn was exported. Weekly export shipments were the largest since June 18, and was 16.5 mbu above the same week last year.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Beans are fractionally lower this morning. Yesterday, the soy complex was higher in beans and meal, but oil closed lower. Front month soybean futures closed the Monday session with gains of ¾ to 6 1/4 cents. Meal futures were up by $2.2 to $2.5 at the closing bell. Bean oil futures closed on Monday with 7 to 16 point losses. There have still be zero deliveries vs. August beans. The oldest long is dated July 13. The weekly Export Inspections report from USDA showed that 23.4 mbu of soybeans were shipped on the week ending Aug 6. That was up 14% wk/wk but down by 11% from the same week of 19/20. The Crop Progress report last night showed that 75% of new crop beans were setting pods. That was up from 59% last week, and was 7% ahead of average. Condition ratings improved on the week, up 4 points on the Brugler500 index to 385. --- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures markets are 2 to 5 cents higher this morning after closing the first trade day of the week lower. SRW wheat was down the most yesterday, with September off 4 ½ cents. KC futures closed Monday’s session with 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 cent losses. MGE wheat fell back 3 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents. USDA’s weekly export data from the week ending August 6 showed that 379,949 MT of wheat was exported. That was down 32% wk/wk, and 47% below the same week last year. Of the week’s wheat shipments, 23% was destined for Japan. MYTD wheat exports via the weekly report were 2% ahead of 19/20’s pace with 5.067 MMT. Ukraine’s wheat harvest was 87% complete as of August 6. As French wheat harvest wraps up, estimates are for 29-30 MMT. NASS reported 90% of this year’s winter wheat harvest was complete, the average is 93% and trade was expecting 91%. Spring wheat harvest was 10% behind the 5-yr average, with new crop 15% cut as of August 9. Pakistan is tendering for 1.5 MMT of optional origin wheat. Egypt also opened an international wheat tender for last half September and first half October, with results expected later today.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Monday was first notice day for August fats, and prices were 80 cents higher to $103.60. That’s still a $0.60 to $4.60 premium over cash (wide regional differences). The other front months were up 67 to 90 cents. Feeder cattle futures gained 15 to 85 cents on the day, with August the strongest. The August 7 CME Feeder Cattle index was $0.69 stronger to $142.61. Cash sales have yet to develop this week. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $13.27. Choice boxes were $1.73 cwt. stronger to $207.20. Select boxes were up by $1.18 cwt. It is still a little early for Labor Day buying (4 weeks out) but it is coming. USDA estimated the week’s start to FI cattle slaughter at 117,000 head. That is 4k above last week’s start, and 2,000 head above the same Monday last year.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures gained triple digits in the 2020 contracts. Deferred contracts through April were 42 to 77 cents higher yesterday. The weekly Fresh Bacon index from CME was $5.78 higher to $134.40 cwt. The CME Lean Hog index was $52.44 on Aug 6, after dropping 34 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Monday afternoon was up 24 cents to $38.43. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $1.86 lower on Monday, at $70.07. USDA’s estimate for Monday’s FI hog slaughter is 482,000 head. That starts the week 62k head above last Monday and 26k head above the same day last year.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Tuesday cotton starts with losses of 2 to 6 points from overnight action. The S&P stock market futures continue to close in on the all time high. Cotton futures rallied 34 to 46 points on Monday. Dec futures closed the day with a 0.71% gain to 62.8 cents/lb. NASS reported that 9% of this year’s crop was opening bolls as of August 9. The 5-yr average is 11%. Also from the weekly update, 71% of new crop cotton had set bolls. That was up 17% wk/wk and 1 ppt ahead of the 5-yr average pace. Cotton conditions were down a stiff 13 points on the Brugler500 to 322. AZ, AS, and CA cotton crops are still very highly rated, but cotton in TX is back below 300 on the Brugler500 index. The Cotlook A index was 71.25 cents/lb on Aug 7, a 40 point bump. The AWP for cotton is 49.44 cents/lb through Thursday. The week’s LDP is 2.56 cents/lb.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by: <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /> Brugler Marketing & Management LLC 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022 Phone: 402-697-3623 Fax: 402-289-2353 E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a>   <div class="MsoNormal" align="center"> Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com/BruglerSampler">here</a> to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today! <hr /> Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com">Start here</a> </div> Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? <a href="http://www.agricharts.com/forms/ac_ag.php">Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.</a>