Ag Market Commentary

Corn is trading 3 to 6 cents higher this morning after closing with 2+ cent gains on Wednesday. Preliminary open interest showed some net new buying, up 9,372 contracts. FSA reported 5.37 million acres of prevent planted corn, that was 60% of the total PP in this August report. ND had the largest PP corn with a state record 1.75m. Corn export sales estimates ahead of the Thursday weekly update are for 0.1 to 0.4 MMT of old crop and 0.3 to 1.0 MMT of new crop. USDA lowered the cash average corn price estimate for new crop by 25 cents per bushel yesterday to $3.10/bu. The USDA corn yield projection was 181.8 bpa. That brought production up by 278 mbu to 15.278 bbu. New crop ending stocks were less than the trade expected, at 2.756 billion bushels.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report, bean futures are 9 to 10 cents per bushel higher. The soy complex closed in the black following the release of USDA’s bearish monthly reports. The first data driven yield forecast from USDA was a record high 53.3 bpa. Soybean production was increased 290 mbu to 4.425 bbu based on that yield and no change in harvested acres. New crop ending stocks are forecasted at 610 mbu, well above pre-report estimates. USDA foresees the 2020/21 average cash bean price at $8.35/bu – down by 15 cents from last month. Bean oil led the complex with 3.03% to 3.18% gains, old crop soybean futures gained double digits, and meal futures were 10 to 20 cents higher at the close. Preliminary open interest rose 5,726 contracts for the beans. Analysts expect between 100,000 and 550,000 MT of old crop beans were sold for export in the week ending Aug 6. Those need to be shipped by August 31. New crop export sales are estimated between 1.1 and 1.8 MMT. Soymeal export sales are estimated 150,000 to 450,000 MT, with an additional 150k to 250k MT for NMY. Soybean PP acres reported by FSA were 1.22 million as of August 1, led by ND with a state record 511k.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat markets traded steady to 2 cents higher overnight, with Chicago hugging the UNCH line this morning. On Wednesday KC HRW wheat was fractionally mixed at the close, with a penny gain in Sept futures. SRW wheat closed with losses of 3 to 3 3/4 cents. MGE HRS futures fell 1/2 to 2 1/2 cents on Wednesday. Wheat export sales estimates for the week ending August 6 are 250,000 to 800,000 MT. USDA raised the new crop production estimate by 14 mbu to 1.838 bbu yesterday, hiking the national average yield 0.4 bushels per acre. Hard red spring wheat was increased 28 mbu to 530 mbu. USDA expects 975 mbu of wheat will be exported this MY, increasing the U.S. market share 0.29 ppts yr/yr to 14.12% of the global export supply. Egypt is tendering for wheat again, with results expected later today.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Futures were up $.87 to $1.70 on Wednesday. August closed at $106.35, a $1.35 to $2.35 premium to the cash market. Wednesday cash sales were $104-$105 in the South, and $170 in the beef. The weekly FCE online cattle auction sold 602 head for a wtd average price of $104.41. The feeder cattle futures were $0.75 to $1.47 stronger on the day. The August 11 Feeder Cattle Index from CME rebounded 20 cents to $142.62. USDA increased 2020 beef production by 94m lbs to 27.028b lbs. They also cut 2021 production by 100m lbs to 27.62 billion. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher. Choice boxes were $209.09 up by $1.01. USDA’s estimates WTD cattle slaughter at 347k head through Wednesday. That was 1,000 head above last week, and even with the same week last year’s pace.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wednesday trades left lean hog futures 32 cents either side of UNCH. August closed at $52.90 on Wednesday, with 8,459 contracts still open as of Tuesday. It expires on Friday. The 08/10 CME Lean Hog index was $53.79, up by another 78 cents. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price for Wednesday was 26 cents stronger at $37.69. 2020 pork production was forecasted 179m lbs lower to 28.36 billion lbs by USDA. USDA kept 2021 pork production at 28.57b lbs. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was up $2.05 to $72.44. Hams were the largest mover, up $16.94 to $64.78. USDA estimated 1.396 million hogs slaughtered WTD through Wednesday. That trails the same week last year by 19k head.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton starts the Thursday session 17 to 53 points higher. Yesterday, cotton futures sustained some triple digit losses. The monthly WASDE report sees 2020/21 output 580k bales above the July estimate as increased yield offset a million acre cut. Suggesting an abandonment rate of 24%, USDA set harvested acres at just 9.25 million. Those acres are, however, estimated to bring a record 938 lbs/acre for 18.08m bales. Old crop stocks were increased 0.1m bales, raising carryover to 7.2m bales. USDA also raised new crop stocks to 7.6m bales on the larger crop. Globally new crop cotton stocks were hiked 2.14m bales to 104.91m bales. NASS reported new crop cotton ginnings were 3,650 RBs in August. That was down 100 RBs from 2019’s August ginnings. The August 11 Cotlook A index was 69 cents/lb after a 25 point bump. The AWP for cotton is 49.44 cents/lb and LDP is 2.56 cents/lb, with fresh numbers after the close.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
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Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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