Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC -

Ag Market Commentary

Alan Brugler - Barchart - Thu Aug 13, 4:41PM UTC

Midday corn trading has futures up double digits through July ’21, with gains of as much as 13 cents. USDA announced a large export sale of 110,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations, which was split 28% old crop and 72% new crop. In the weekly export sales report corn bookings were 377,188 MT for old crop and 553,144 MT for new crop. New crop sales were down big from the 2.6 MMT last week, but still 79.8% above the same week yr/yr. 2020/21 milo sales on the week were the second highest on record with 527,500 MT booked – with 66% to China and the remainder to unknown. FSA reported 81.12m acres were certified planted for corn. That was the lowest confirmed August planting since data became available in ’07. Note that with coronavirus impacts there could be a backlog of registrations and paperwork. The data is as of July 31. The monthly CASDE (China’s Ag Ministry supply and demand estimates) has 2020/21 corn use at 288 MMT.

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.27, up 12 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.40 1/4, up 13 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.51 1/2, up 12 3/4 cents,

May 21 Corn is at $3.58 3/4, up 12 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month bean futures are trading as much as 19 1/4 cents/bu higher in the front months. Yesterday there were 220 deliveries against August beans, which expire tomorrow. MTD soy deliveries are 220 bean contracts, 1,780 meal contracts, and 764 oil contracts. Soymeal futures are trading 3.1% higher at midday. Soy oil futures are giving back 14 to 15 points so far. In a mandatory reporting announcement this morning, USDA reported two large new crop bean sales. China bought 197,000 MT, and 202,000 MT was sold to unknown. From the weekly Export Sales report 570,100 MT of old crop beans were booked. That was above pre-report estimates and up 65% wk/wk. China purchased 73.8% of the total on the week (with 355k reported late). New crop purchases were also above expectations with 2.84 MMT. China booked 1.71 MMT (with 1.17 MMT already known), and 872,500 MT were sold to unknown (with 372k already known). Ahead of the 2020/21 MY, China has forward booked 10.27 MMT of soybeans, the highest forward booking through August 6 since the 13/14 MY. Soymeal export sales were below expectations with 252,366 MT sold on the week ending August 6. That was split 182k for 2019/20 and 70k for NMY. South Korea purchased 28k MT of bean oil on the week, for 2020/21 delivery. The total 48,700 MT sold was the largest bean oil forward sale for any week since September 23 2010.

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $9.09 3/4, up 19 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans are at $8.97 3/4, up 17 1/4 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $9.01 1/2, up 18 1/2 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $9.06 1/2, up 18 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybean Meal is at $292.70, up $8.50

Sep 20 Soybean Oil is at $31.39, down $0.17

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month wheat futures are recovering from yesterday’s losses. Chicago futures are up by 7 1/4 to 8 cents. KC HRW futures are trading with midday gains of 7 3/4 to 8 3/4 cents. Spring wheat futures are up by 4 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents at midday. The weekly Export Sales report noted 357,900 MT of wheat booked on the week ending August 6. That was down 39% wk/wk and 20% below the same week last year. Accumulated commitments through the first 10 weeks are 7.78% ahead of last year’s pace. The August WASDE has 975 mbu of wheat to be exported this MY. That increased the U.S. market share 0.29 ppts yr/yr to 14.12% of the global export supply. That shift came mainly via EU and Ukraine, which are forecasted with 14% and 9.5% market shares respectively. Egypt is tendering for wheat again, with results expected later today.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat is at $4.99, up 7 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.26 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat is at $4.99 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month cattle futures are up 15 to 60 cents through Dec. The other contracts are UNCH and down a nickel so far. There were another 6 tenders against August futures yesterday, MTD deliveries are at 18 contracts. USDA reported a few $106 to $107 cash trades in IA on Wednesday. So far this week cattle have traded at $104-$105 in the South and mostly $105 in the North. Dressed sales have been mostly $170 so far this week. Feeder cattle futures are mostly lower at midday with a nickel gain for August contracts. The August 11 Feeder Cattle Index from CME rebounded 20 cents to $142.62. Beef export sales from the week ending August 6 were 11,599 MT. That was down 13% wk/wk and 28% below bookings from the same week in 2019. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again in the AM report. Choice boxes were up $1.83, and Select was $1.51 higher. USDA’s estimates WTD cattle slaughter at 347k head through Wednesday. That was 1,000 head above last week, and even with the same week last year’s pace.

Aug 20 Cattle are at $106.950, up $0.600,

Oct 20 Cattle are at $110.000, up $0.425,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $112.700, up $0.150,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle are at $145.300, up $0.050

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle are at $147.600, down $0.350

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $148.650, down $0.450

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures are trading 15 to 60 cents in the black so far, with August futures trading near $53.50. They expire on Friday. The Lean Hog Index from CME was $53.82 for August 11, which was a 3 cent increase. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Thursday was withheld due to confidentiality rules; the PM quote was $37.69. The Weekly Export Sales report had pork bookings at a low 10,481 MT for the week ending August 6. That was about half of the same week yr/yr, and the lowest since COVID-19 afflicted sales in May. Shipments from the report were 34,900 MT, which was 1.5% higher wk/wk and up 32% on the year. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was up $4.01 to $76.45. Hams were the largest mover, up $10.47 to $75.25 cwt. USDA estimated 1.396 million hogs slaughtered WTD through Wednesday. That trails the same week last year by 19k head.

Oct 20 Hogs are at $52.100, up $0.500,

Dec 20 Hogs are at $54.000, up $0.600

Feb 21 Hogs are at $61.300, up $0.400

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Thursday cotton trading has front month futures 82 to 114 points in the black so far. Dec is up the most at midday with a 114 point gain to near 63.34 cents/lb. For the first week of the MY, cotton export sales were 6,891 RBs, with 2.883m RBs unshipped from 2019/20. 2020/21 commitments are at 6.289M RBs to start the MY. Cotton exports on the week were 322,167 RBs, down 24,592 RBs wk/wk. Suggesting an abandonment rate of 24%, USDA set harvested acres at just 9.25 million. Those acres are, however, estimated to bring a record 938 lbs/acre for 18.08m bales. The Cotlook A index for Aug 12 was up another 50 points to 69.5 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 49.44 cents/lb and LDP is 2.56 cents/lb, with fresh numbers after the close.

Oct 20 Cotton is at 62.66, up 82 points,

Dec 20 Cotton is at 63.34, up 114 points

Mar 21 Cotton is at 64.21, up 107 points

May 21 Cotton is at 64.94, up 105 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

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