Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures came back down from midday highs. The front months held on to gains and closed fractionally to a penny higher. July ’21 contracts ended UNCH at $3.49 1/2 and Sept ’21 closed fractionally lower on the day. Traders await USDA’s supply and demand updates in tomorrow’s reports. The average estimate ahead of USDA is for a 176.5 mbu bump to new crop production by way of a 180.5 bpa yield. Analysts expect that to carry through the MY with an average estimate of 2.823 bbu 2020/21 ending stocks. Old crop stocks are estimated to receive a 21.1 mbu bump. CONAB released their monthly production estimate. They raised both first and second corn crops for a net increase of 1.58 MMT to 102.142 MMT. Analysts expect USDA will leave their estimate at 101 MMT for Brazil.

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.11 1/2, up 1 cent,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.23 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.35 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

May 21 Corn closed at $3.43 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month beans closed fractionally mixed on Tuesday. The 2020 contracts held on to some gains, and in delivery August closed up by 1 1/2 cents. The deferred contracts closed fractionally lower. CmdtyView’s national average soybean cash price is $8.24 today, for a basis of 54 cents under August. In the WCB, cmdtyView data suggest the cash price is 34 cents below the ECB bean price at $8.12 /bu. Meal futures also fell back in the afternoon, closing near the lows down by as much as 30 cents/ton. Bean oil futures ended the Tuesday session 11 to 18 points in the red. USDA announced the sale of 132,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China, this morning. Ahead of USDA’s August reports, traders anticipate a higher bean yield of 51.2 bpa on average. The average pre-report estimate for new crop production is 4.259 bbu. Analysts expect a 101 mbu bump to new crop stocks, with the average of estimates at 526.3 mbu. CONAB lowered their soybean production estimate slightly to 120.883 MMT. USDA’s estimate for Brazil is 126 MMT, but analysts expect a 0.6 MMT cut tomorrow.

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.78, up 1 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.70 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.73 1/2, up 1/4 cent,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $8.79, down 1/4 cent,

Sep 20 Soybean Meal closed at $284.10, down $0.30

Sep 20 Soybean Oil closed at $30.62, down $0.11

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Turnaround Tuesday left the front month wheat markets higher. SRW wheat futures were back up by 3 to 4 cents at the closing bell. The national average wheat cash price (SRW) from cmdtyView is $4.78, which is 4 cents stronger on the day. The SRW to corn premium (Sept) is $1.83 1/2 /bu, which is back up by a nickel after having fallen 37 cents since the start of the month. KC HRW futures recovered 1 to 2 3/4 cents. And MGE wheat closed with gains of as much as 2 cents. The average estimate for 2020/21 wheat production ahead of USDA’s report is for 1.833 bbu. That would be up by 8.7 mbu from July if realized. Trade expects most of the increase to come via a 10.6 mbu bump to spring wheat. Egypt’s GASC purchased 120k MT of Russian wheat for last half September and first half October.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.95, up 4 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.16 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.92 3/4, up 2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Aug futures rallied triple digits on Tuesday to $104.65, which is about $1.65 above the cash prices from last week. So far this week cash sales have been light. USDA confirmed sales in KS and WCB at $103 and $103-$105 respectively. Northern dressed bids were $163-$165 with no sales confirmed yet. The front month cattle futures closed $0.47 to $1.15 higher on the day. Feeder cattle futures also rallied triple digits on Tuesday with gains of as much as 0.84%. The CME Feeder Cattle index was back down by 28 cents to $142.33. The FCE online cattle auction has 890 head listed so far for tomorrow’s sale. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday, tightening the Chc/Sel spread to $13.06. Choice boxes were up 88 cents to $208.08 cwt. while Select boxes strengthened by $1.09. It is still a little early for Labor Day buying (4 weeks out) but it is coming. USDA’s estimate for Tuesday’s cattle slaughter was 117,000 head. WTD slaughter under federal inspection is at 230,000 head after a Monday revision lower. With 230,000 head killed through Tuesday, the week’s pace is 1,000 head above last week, but trailing the same week last year by 2,000 head.

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $104.650, up $1.050,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $108.300, up $1.150,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $111.675, up $0.700,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.500, up $0.925

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.625, up $1.225

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.625, up $1.050

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Turnaround Tuesday action pushed front month lean hog futures back by as much as $2. August futures closed a nickel lower to $53.07 ahead of Friday’s expiration. The CME Lean Hog index was $53.02 on Aug 8, up by 58 cents. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price for Tuesday was $1.01 weaker to $37.42. Domestic pork prices in China for the month of July were 10.3% higher mo/mo, and 85.7% higher yr/yr. China announced plans to sell another 10k MT of pork from state reserves on August 14. YTD the PRC gov’t has already auctioned 420k MMT of pork. Tuesday afternoon’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was up $0.32 to $70.39. Hams were quoted at $47.84 cwt. in the afternoon. USDA’s estimate for Tuesday’s FI hog slaughter is 458,000 head. After revising Monday lower, USDA has the WTD hog slaughter at 915,000 head. That is 36k head above the week prior, but down 16k yr/yr.

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $51.825, down $2.000,

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $53.300, down $1.400

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $60.600, down $1.150

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month cotton futures were up by 69 to 75 points at the closing bell on Tuesday. NASS reported that 9% of this year’s crop was opening bolls as of August 9. The 5-yr average is 11%. Also from the weekly update, 71% of new crop cotton had set bolls. That was up 17% wk/wk and 1 ppt ahead of the 5-yr average pace. Cotton conditions were down a stiff 13 points on the Brugler500 to 322. AZ, AS, and CA cotton crops are still very highly rated, but cotton in TX is back below 300 on the Brugler500 index. Monday sales on The Seam were 446 bales at an average gross price of 59.77 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index fell back 2 and a half cents on Aug 10, to 68.75 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 49.44 cents/lb through Thursday. The week’s LDP is 2.56 cents/lb.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 63.03, up 69 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 63.49, up 69 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 64.33, up 73 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 64.96, up 75 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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Phone: 402-697-3623
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