Corn Reacting with Gains

Corn futures are up 1 1/2 to 2 cents from a sell the rumor buy the fact reaction to the USDA numbers. Analysts were anticipating bearish increases to yields and production, but the 181.8 bpa yield forecast was more bearish than the average estimate of 180.5. That brought production up by 278 mbu to 15.278 bbu. Carryin was dropped down via a 20 mbu shift to 19/20 exports. New crop ending stocks were less than the trade expected, at 2.756 billion bushels. This morning EIA data revealed average daily ethanol production for the week ending Aug 6 was 918k barrels. That was 13k bpd fewer than the week prior, but stocks fell 596k barrels to 19.75 million. That is the lowest ethanol stockpile since the week ending December 30 of 2016. New crop corn use for ethanol was estimated at 5.2 bbu, which was UNCH vs. the July WASDE. USDA revised global corn production for 2020/21 higher by 7.82 MMT to 1.171 BMT. World ending stocks are estimated to be 317.46 MMT for 2020/21. That is up 2.42 MMT from July.

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.13, up 1 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.25 1/2, up 2 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.36 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

May 21 Corn is at $3.44 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

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