Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed Report Day with gains of 2 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents. The cash average corn price was estimated by USDA at $3.10 for new crop, which was 25 cents per bushel below the July estimate. USDA estimates the average national corn yield will be 181.8 bpa. The trade was looking for 180.5. That brought production up by 278 mbu to 15.278 bbu. Carryin was dropped down via a 20 mbu boost to 19/20 exports. New crop ending stocks were less than the trade expected, at 2.756 billion bushels. This morning EIA data revealed average daily ethanol production for the week ending Aug 6 was 918k barrels. That was 13k bpd fewer than the week prior, but stocks fell 596k barrels to 19.75 million. USDA revised global corn production for 2020/21 higher by 7.82 MMT to 1.171 BMT. World ending stocks are estimated to be 317.46 MMT for 2020/21. That is up 2.42 MMT from July. Corn export sales estimates ahead of the Thursday weekly update are for 0.1 to 0.4 MMT of old crop and 0.3 to 1.0 MMT of new crop. FSA reported 5.37 million acres of prevent planted corn, that was 60% of the total PP. ND had the largest PP corn with a state record 1.75m.

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.14 1/2, up 3 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.27 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.38 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $3.46 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

At the closing bell on report day, the soy market was in the black. Beans gained double digits in old crop, and new crop futures were 7 to 9 1/2 cents stronger. Bean oil led the complex with 3.03% to 3.18% gains. Meal futures were 10 to 20 cents higher in the front months. USDA announced the sale of 258,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China, along with 120k MT of new crop beans to unknown destinations. Analysts expect between 100,000 and 550,000 MT of old crop beans were sold on the week ending Aug 6. Those need to be shipped by August 31. New crop export sales are estimated between 1.1 and 1.8 MMT. The first data driven yield forecast from USDA is 53.3 bpa. That was up 3.5 bpa from the July trend yield forecast. Soybean production was increased 290 mbu to 4.425 bbu. Carryin, at 615 mbu, was lowered 5 mbu from July on a higher crush estimate. New crop ending stocks are forecasted at 610 mbu. USDA foresees the 2020/21 average cash bean price at $8.35/bu – down by 15 cents from last month. NMY’s meal cash price is $290/ton, and oil was upped a penny to 30 cents/lb. Soybean PP acres reported by FSA were 1.22 million, led by ND with a state record 511k.

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.90 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.80 1/2, up 10 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.83, up 9 1/2 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $8.87 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybean Meal closed at $284.20, up $0.10

Sep 20 Soybean Oil closed at $31.56, up $0.94

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wednesday wheat trading pushed futures mostly lower. SRW wheat was down the most with losses of 3 to 3 3/4 cents. KC wheat was fractionally mixed at the close, save for a penny gain in Sept futures. MGE HRS futures fell 1/2 to 2 1/2 cents on Wednesday. The new crop production estimate for wheat is 1.838 bbu, up 14 mbu from July. The average trade estimate was for an 8.7 mbu bump. Hard red spring wheat was increased 28 mbu to 530 mbu. USDA expects 975 mbu of wheat will be exported this MY, increasing the U.S. market share 0.29 ppts yr/yr to 14.12% of the global export supply. Globally, wheat production was cut by 3.28 MMT to 766.03. Gains to Russian and Ukrainian production were offset by cuts to EU and Argentina. Wheat export sales estimates for the week ending August 6 are 250,000 to 800,000 MT. Egypt is tendering for wheat again, with results expected tomorrow.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.91 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.17 3/4, up 1 cent,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.92 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Futures were up $.87 to $1.70 today. Yesterday, there were 6 more tenders against August fat cattle futures, the total through the first two days of deliveries is now 12 contracts. August closed at $106.35, a $1.35 to $2.35 premium to the cash market. Wednesday cash sales were $104-$105 in the South, and $170 in the beef. The weekly FCE online cattle auction sold 602 of the 890 head listed for a wtd average price of $104.41. The front month feeder cattle market was $0.75 to $1.47 stronger on the day. The August 11 Feeder Cattle Index from CME rebounded 20 cents back to $142.62. From the August WASDE report, USDA expects 2020 beef production will be 27.028b lbs. That is up 94m lbs from the July estimate, via an increase in the second half of the year. 2021 beef production is expected to increase 2.2% yr/yr to 27.62m lbs, as USDA revised the second half of the year 100m lbs lower. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher. Choice boxes were $209.09 up by $1.01. USDA’s estimates WTD cattle slaughter at 347k head through Wednesday. That is 1,000 head above last week, and even with the same week last year’s pace.

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $106.350, up $1.700,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $109.575, up $1.275,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $112.550, up $0.875,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.250, up $0.750

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.950, up $1.325

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.100, up $1.475

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wednesday trades left lean hog futures within 32 cents of UNCH. August closed at $52.90 on Wednesday, with 8,459 contracts still open as of Tuesday. The 08/10 CME Lean Hog index was $53.79 up by another 78 cents. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price for Wednesday was 26 cents stronger at $37.69. From the August WASDE report, USDA expects 2020 pork production will be 28.36b lbs. That is down 179m lbs from the July estimate, via a 140m cut in 3Q20 production. 2021 pork production is expected to increase 0.7% yr/yr to 28.57b lbs – UNCH from July. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was up $2.05 to $72.44. Hams were the largest mover, up $16.94 to $64.78. USDA estimates 1.396 million hogs slaughtered WTD through Wednesday. That trails the same week last year by 19k head.

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $51.600, down $0.225,

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $53.400, up $0.100

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $60.900, up $0.300

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures fell back on Wednesday closing with losses of as much as 129 points. New crop cotton yield was upped by NASS to a record 938 lbs/acre. That is 14% above last year and 4% above the previous record for August of 2018/19. USDA revised new crop production 0.58 m bales higher as well, to 18.08m bales. Old crop stocks were increased 0.1m bales, raising carryin to 7.2m bales. USDA also raised new crop stocks to 7.6m bales on the larger crop. USDA did leave the average farm price of new crop cotton UNCH at 59 cents/lb. Globally new crop cotton stocks were hiked 2.14m bales to 104.91m bales. NASS reported new crop cotton ginnings were 3,650 RBs in August. That was down 100 RBs from 2019’s August ginnings. The August 11 Cotlook A index was 69 cents/lb after a 25 point bump. The AWP for cotton is 49.44 cents/lb through Thursday. The week’s LDP is 2.56 cents/lb.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 61.84, down 119 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 62.2, down 129 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 63.14, down 119 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 63.89, down 107 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.